Population & Morale Forecast Calculator

Morale is the master variable in Mandate Order's population engine. Above 80, refugees stream in and new 伍 (laborer units) join at the start of each month — this is the growth band. Between 50 and 80, population is roughly stable. Between 30 and 50, laborers start to leave. Below 30, you enter the revolt band: mass exodus, armed rebellion, and in the worst case, divine lightning striking the rebel-held district.

The calculator above iterates the morale equation turn by turn: ΔM = ΔM_food + ΔM_tax + ΔM_amenities − ΔM_disaster. Population change is a function of the current morale band and whether population is under the housing cap. The forecast chart plots both curves over N turns so you can see inflection points — the turns where morale crosses a band boundary and the situation qualitatively changes.

The single most common morale collapse is not a disaster — it's a single missed food shipment in early winter. A two-turn food gap can cascade into a 40-point morale drop, which pushes population into the loss band, which reduces labor capacity, which further reduces food production. Use the forecast to spot these death spirals before they trigger.

When morale drops below 50, passive recovery is too slow — you need active interventions. The emergency playbook: (1) cut taxes to the lowest bracket for +ΔM_tax; (2) open the granary and distribute emergency food for +ΔM_food; (3) dispatch a Legalist retainer to the troubled district for a suppression buff; (4) suspend non-essential construction to redirect laborers to morale-relevant work (water hauling, fuel gathering).

The calculator's intervention panel lets you simulate each of these measures and see the projected morale curve shift. A well-timed tax cut on turn 3 of a winter dip can be the difference between a stable city and a rebellion that costs you the run.